2016 Oscar Buzz: Who Will Win an Academy Award?

With the beginning of 2016 dawning before us and families gathering for presents and food, talk will inevitably turn to what films will be getting Oscars buzz this year. Maybe you've been busy and haven’t had time to see anything besides Star Wars. Fortunately, we here at FINE have seen these movies, and we can give you our thoughts on who will likely be walking away with statues at the end of the 88th Academy Awards.

Academy Awards: Best Picture

What will win: The current favorite for this category is Tim McCarthy’s Spotlight. This gripping thriller portrays the investigation by the Boston Globe into abuse allegations leveled at priests in the Catholic Church. Compelling and heart-pounding, this film has all the hallmarks of a classic that will have people talking for years to come. This film has the audience locked in their seats for the entire 128-minute runtime, and the final scene in particular is likely to remain seared in filmgoers’ minds long after they’ve left the theater.

What might win: The Martian. Matt Damon’s lonely trek across the face of Mars as an astronaut left behind after a storm forces his team to leave him for dead blends the right amount of comedy, suspense, and action to appeal to movie-goers of all ages. This is ultimately an excellent cinematic experience, but The Martian is neither as gripping nor as haunting as Spotlight.

Another contender: The Big Short. Adam McKay’s mix of drama and comedy in this film about the housing collapse is indicative of The Wolf of Wall Street if Wolf had any restraint at all. The film is quite funny at times and is helped by an excellent ensemble cast. In any other year, it would have a much stronger chance, but it will ultimately loose to Spotlight.

2016 Oscars: Best Actor

Who will win: Leonardo DiCaprio. In the past ten or so years, betting on whether DiCaprio will ever get an Oscar (he has been nominated for best actor four times) has become a running joke, but this time it seems almost certain he will collect the prize. The Revenant is the story of a man who survives a brutal bear attack. The film follows DiCaprio's quest to get revenge on those who left him for dead. This movie is not for the faint of heart. It well earns its R rating, and things consistently go from bad to worse, but at no point do you ever want to look away. DiCaprio’s pain and suffering is so compelling that you can’t help but watch. This category looks all locked up for Leo this year.

Who might win: Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl. This film, while not loved by the critics, tells the story of Einar Wegener, a Danish artist struggling to come to terms with the fact that she is a woman trapped inside the body of a man in 1920’s Copenhagen. With the general public becoming more aware of transgender issues, the Academy may try to win points by giving the award to someone portraying this complicated and relevant issue. However, DiCaprio’s strong performance (and the fact that Redmayne won Best Actor in 2015) should ultimately give DiCaprio the edge.

One other possibility: Tom Hanks for Bridge of Spies. This film captures the tale of James Donovan, a lawyer who has to oversee a prisoner exchange between a captured American pilot and an admitted Soviet Spy. The film is gripping and Hanks, as the central character, delivers yet another a solid performance. He remains idealistic and genuinely a good man throughout everything he goes through. The only thing going against Hanks this year is the strength of DiCaprio’s performance and the fact that he is Tom Hanks, a five-time nominee and a two-time winner. Yet another Oscar for Hanks while Leo continues to have none would only lend fuel to the running meme-filled joke that the Academy hates DiCaprio.

88th Academy Awards: Best Actress

Who will win: Brie Larson for Room. The film captures the story of a woman and her son held captive for five years and then released. Once they are free, both discover it’s a big world out there with a lot of people in it. The film is both uplifting and heartbreaking at the same time, and Larson’s performance makes it almost a given that she will walk away with this award on February 28th.

Who might win: Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn. This is a story of love between an Irish immigrant and two men; one she meets in America, the other back in Ireland. The film has a classic, old fashion style of story-telling that still manages to capture the divide between the new world and the old. Ronan’s performance is as compelling as any, but the old-fashion style of film may play against her in the minds of a more progressive, forward-thinking Academy.

Another possibility: Cate Blanchett in Carol. A romance set between two women in 1950’s Manhattan, Carol is an excellent look into something that is so commonplace today, but at one time was forbidden. Blanchett’s performance is superb, and the subject matter plays in her favor, but (like Hanks) the fact that she is a five-time nominee and two-time winner may prevent her from leaving the Oscars with another statue.

Academy Awards: Best Director

Who will win: George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road. Mad Max is a spectacle of a movie. Dust storms, car chases across the desert, explosions, and peaceful shots of inky star-filled skies all make for an absolutely wonderful movie-watching experience. A win for Miller would go a long way towards breaking the stereotype that successful action movies have no business at the Oscars.

Who might win: Tom McCarthy for Spotlight. Spotlight is, simply put, an amazing movie and, because of that, the Academy may be tempted to simply throw awards at anyone involved. McCarthy’s winning of Best Director would not be undeserved, but given the almost certainty of Spotlight's Best Picture win, the Academy may choose to award Mad Max too.

One other option: Alejandro González Iñárritu for The Revenant. The film is gripping, the camerawork is excellent, and the movie has all the makings of a hit, but it has neither the long-standing classic appeal that Spotlight has, nor does it have the blockbuster spectacle of Mad Max, making this option a distant third.

Well, there you have it: Oscar predictions enough to handle whatever your self-proclaimed movie buff Uncle can throw at you from across the dinner table. How do your predictions match up with ours? Be sure to check back closer to award season for the latest buzz!